Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Cool Start Bro!: Week One Bros and Busts.

We last left off with me attempting to explain just how important it is to stay level-headed, and mentally stable, throughout the entirety of the fantasy season; no rash decisions, no feelings about sleepers, and certainly no trades without consulting your uncle Sports Pro first (as my uncle Sports Pro used to tell me). So hopefully you followed my insight, your draft in turn was a success, and your team, and season, looks very promising, if so then I congratulate you. This however is a very small minority, for the most of us will be staring at a borderline team wondering what to do, but it’s okay, there’s no need to panic, especially not today. All you need is a little bit of help, a little bit of advice on how to start your season off right, and with these next few days being the most crucial ones of the year, the days in which we must decide whom we will start/sit for week one, I’ve decided to make it my responsibility to be that help. Now I’m sure, as I stated in previous articles, you may not truly trust what I’m about to say, and due to this lack of trust you may turn to other fantasy writers for advice, and I completely understand, but that would be a terrible move. All the help you could ever need is with me, a man who’s not afraid to admit that he’s made, and learned from, plenty of terrible fantasy decisions in the past…..

It was exactly this day last year that I made the worst decision ever in the history of fantasy football. As I sat in my seat, very similar to the one I’m sitting in now, behind my computer, similarly similar to the one I’m behind now, looking at my mediocre fantasy team, also very similar to the one I’m looking at now, I made the choice to move a player named Jerome Harrison into my starting line-up, and for what reason I’m still unsure. Was it his projected points, or his matchup, or was it because I had no one else to even consider starting, who knows? What I do know is that this one decision ruined not only that current fantasy week, but all others to follow, and I have no one else to blame but myself. So this week, in an attempt to prevent you, my fellow fans, from making this same mistake, I bring you my advice on whom to start and sit for week 1, or as we at SPAB like to call it, our Bros and Busts.
Note: This is not a list of the five best and worst starts this week, its simply a list of players that I feel will do better, or worse, then expected.
The Bro’s
1.       Jahvid Best: He’s Healthy.  He’s Happy. And He’s playing Tampa Bay, who last year gave up 15 points to opposing RB’s in all but two weeks. He’s still not a #1 RB start, but he’s certainly worth a #2 RB spot or a flex option….just remember how he started off the year in 2010.
2.       Legarrette Blount: In his game against the Lions last season, Legarrette had a T/P ratio of 1(Total Touches over Total Points, a stat that I’m fairly certain I am the creator of) meaning that with just 15 touches he managed to get 15 points, the highest ratio of any game he had last year.  With this in mind, and the likelihood that he will be more involved this time around, it’s safe to say that he could very easily break the top 10 RB’s this week.
3.       Wes Welker: In the last 4 Monday Night games Wes has played in, he has a combined 33 catches for 275 yards and a TD. In a PPR league that’s an average of 16 points per game, making him a viable flex or #2 WR option.
4.       Reggie Wayne: They’re playing Houston, the 2nd worst Defense against the pass last year, a Defense that Reggie has scored against 5 of the last 7 times they’ve met. So whether their QB is Manning, or Collins, or Wayne himself, I can assure you he’ll be fine.
5.       Reggie Bush: The recent hate for Daniel Thomas only ups the value of Reggie, and this week they’re playing that mediocre New England D. He may not get 20 carries, or even 15, but I can only assume that he will be heavily involved in the offense, not only in the run game, but also in the pass. Needless to say I expect Reggie to shine.
The Bust’s
1.       James Starks/Ryan Grant: With the recent news of a RB time split, it seems too unpredictable to start either one. I’d suggest you wait and see what happens this week, before you give either of them a spot in your line-up.
2.       Ray Rice: In his three meetings with the Steelers in 2010, Rice had a combined 29 carries for 84 yards and a TD, that’s less than 5 points a game…. He’s still a start, I just wouldn’t expect much from him.
3.       Steven Jackson: He has never been very productive on the “first day of school” so to speak. Over the past four opening day games, Jackson has had 70 carries for just 246 yards and no TDs, that’s 3.5 YPC, and only 6 points per game. So unless he goes off on the receiving side of the ball, he’s not a good option this week.
4.       Felix Jones: If you heard the podcast you would know that I’m very high on The Real King Felix this year, however, not so much this week. Going against a Jets D that allows just 12 points a week to RB’s, it would be smart to find another option.
5.       Roddy White: Roddy against the Bears won’t work out well, you should probably sit him, but only if your name is James…..everyone else should definitely start him.

There you have it, my 5 bros and busts. The best of luck to you all this week.
Foooooooooooootball!

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